Research
Research
The research programme behind Econosysmographe: working papers on the geometry of correlation structure, and a weekly public record.
The Three Manifolds
A weekly reading of market structure since April 2026: diversification, co-movement and macro conditions, with dated observations, interpretation and explicit limitations.
Working papers
These papers document the research programme and the hypotheses investigated at the time of writing. They are working papers, not peer-reviewed publications. Their titles and historical findings should not be read as claims about the predictive performance of the current product.
- The Geometry of Risk: Predicting Financial Crises 332 Days Early Across a 26-Year Sample — SSRN 6566658, April 2026.
- Why Martingales Cannot Predict Markets — And What Riemannian Geometry Can Do Instead — SSRN 6400438, March 2026.
- Beyond Portfolio Death: Geometric Rupture Detection and the Cone de Evangelos — A Riemannian Critique of Lifecycle Investing and the 100% Equity Illusion — SSRN 6140809, February 2026.
- The Minsky Singularity: A Geometric Discovery of the Economic Termination Signal — SSRN 6212120, January 2026.
- The Universe Risk Framework: Geometric Foundations of the EconoSysmographe — SSRN 6055375, January 2026.
Methodology
How market and portfolio structure is measured, including the inputs, estimation settings and interpretation of the results, is documented on econosysmographe.com.
See the research applied
A standard use case and the analytical record behind its final report, in a 30-minute demonstration.